TL;DR: A almighty "atmospheric river" (think: a occurrence hose of h2o successful the sky) is hitting Chile from northbound to southbound this week. The worst time is Friday, July 31. Some areas could get implicit 100mm of rain—that’s similar dumping a bathtub of h2o connected each quadrate meter! Santiago gets a mean soak (~21mm), and a second storm follows close down implicit the weekend.
What Is an "Atmospheric River"? (ELI5 Explanation)
Imagine a giant, invisible stream floating successful the sky. Instead of liquid h2o you tin see, it carries massive amounts of h2o vapor (invisible gas). When this sky-river hits land—especially mountains—it gets squeezed similar a bedewed sponge, dumping tons of rain successful a abbreviated time.
Key Fact: This isn’t conscionable a regular rainy day. It’s a "Category 4-5" atmospheric stream connected a 1-5 scale. Think of it similar a hurricane’s rain—without the hurricane winds.
Timeline: When Will It Hit?
| Wednesday | Rain starts successful the south/center-south |
| Thursday | Rain continues, spreading north |
| FRIDAY, JULY 31 (PEAK DAY) | Heaviest rainfall everywhere — each astatine erstwhile successful ~12 hours |
| Saturday (early) | First tempest fades |
| Saturday (late) → Sunday | Second tempest arrives successful cardinal Chile |
Region-by-Region Breakdown
RED ZONE: Over 100mm Rain (Bathtub Level!)
Regions: Maule, Ñuble, Biobío, La Araucanía (interior sectors)
- Timeframe: Wednesday → Saturday morning
- Hotspots: Around Arauco and Constitución
- Why it’s dangerous: Ground already bedewed from erstwhile rains → precocious flood/landslide risk
ORANGE ZONE: Severe Impact (Not "Beneficial" Rain)
Region: Coquimbo (especially Combarbalá)
- Amount: Up to 45 mm — but all successful ~12 hours connected Friday
- Meteorologist Jaime Leyton’s nonstop words: "Coquimbo volition beryllium severely affected, not benefited"
- Extra risk: Area inactive recovering from past tempest → "superávit" (surplus water) means crushed can’t sorb more
YELLOW ZONE: Broad Coverage Friday Only
Regions: Antofagasta → Aysén (plus drizzle successful Tarapacá)
- When: Only Friday, July 31
- Duration: ~12 hours of continuous rain
GREEN ZONE: Normal Winter Rain
Region: Metropolitana (Santiago)
- Amount: ~21 mm total
- Context: Typical for this clip of twelvemonth — manageable
Bonus Hazards (It’s Not Just Rain!)
- Strong winds — tin sound down trees/power lines
- Marejadas (storm surges) — unsafe coastal waves
- Thunderstorms — successful "puntual sectors" (specific spots)
- Possible tornadic activity — not ruled retired successful terrible cells
IMPORTANT CALLOUT:
The Friday "Compression" Effect
In Coquimbo and central-north zones, ALL the rainfall falls successful ~12 hours.
→ That’s similar a period of rainfall successful fractional a day.
→ Flash floods tin hap fast.
→ Stay disconnected roads if imaginable Friday.
→ Check drains/gutters now.
5 Simple Steps to Prepare (Do These Today!)
- Clear your drains & gutters — leaves + dense rainfall = flooded yard/house
- Charge everything — phones, powerfulness banks, exigency lights (wind knocks retired power)
- Secure escaped items — patio furniture, trash cans, extortion sheets (wind + rainfall = projectiles)
- Check your route — if you must thrust Friday, cognize alternate roads; ne'er transverse flooded roads
- Pack a "go bag" — meds, documents, water, snacks, lukewarm apparel (just successful case)
What Happens After Saturday?
Don’t unbend yet!
A second frontal system arrives Saturday and hits central Chile by Sunday.
It whitethorn beryllium weaker, but connected already soaked ground, adjacent mean rainfall causes problems.
Quick Summary
| Peak danger: Friday, July 31 — nationwide dense rainfall successful ~12 hrs |
| Highest totals: Maule → La Araucanía interiors (>100mm) |
| Coquimbo: Severe impact — not beneficial, crushed saturated |
| Santiago: Normal wintertime rain (~21mm) — manageable |
| Second tempest Sunday — enactment alert done weekend |
| Main risks: Flash floods, landslides, upwind damage, coastal surges |
FAQ (Your Questions, Answered Simply)
1. "Is this clime change?"
Single storms aren’t "caused" by clime change, but warmer oceans = much evaporation = stronger atmospheric rivers. Scientists expect these "sky rivers" to get wetter and much aggravated implicit time.
2. "Should I evacuate?"
Only if authorities accidental so. If you unrecorded adjacent a river, successful a debased area, oregon connected a hillside with landslide past — have a program ready. Listen to ONEMI/Sernageomin alerts.
3. "Can I thrust Friday?"
Avoid it if possible. If you must:
- Leave aboriginal (before highest rain)
- Never thrust done h2o covering the roadworthy (6 inches = nonaccomplishment of control; 12 inches = car floats)
- Watch for fallen trees/power lines
4. "Will my pat h2o beryllium affected?"
Heavy rainfall tin marque stream h2o muddy → attraction plants whitethorn struggle. Fill bottles/jugs today conscionable successful case.
5. "What’s the quality betwixt this and a mean wintertime front?"
| 5-20 mm implicit 1-2 days | 45-100+ mm successful 12 hours |
| Steady, soaking rain | Intense, tropical downpours |
| Ground absorbs most | Ground saturates accelerated → runoff |
| Low wind | Strong gusts + tempest surge |
Final Thought
Chile knows wintertime storms. But this 1 packs a double punch:
- Extreme intensity (atmospheric river)
- Bad timing (ground already bedewed + 2nd tempest Sunday)
Stay informed. Stay dry. Look retired for neighbors.
Sources: Alejandro Sepúlveda & Jaime Leyton (Megatiempo), ONEMI, Dirección Meteorológica de Chile. Article based connected forecast information from July 2020.
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